Friday, 17 May 2024

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (2, 3, 17, 18, 23) with the draw of 15 June 2023 — its closest relative in 2,944 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 85% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 May 2024): 2, 3, 23 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 74 — the 39th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 2–3, 17–18. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

11 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.