Tuesday, 3 October 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (3, 5, 11, 23, 24) with the draw of 7 December 2012 — its closest relative in 2,814 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 84% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (2 October 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 76 — the 44th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11, 23–24. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 6 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.