Tuesday, 18 April 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (2, 7, 8, 14, 15) with the draw of 5 August 2011 — its closest relative in 2,718 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 83% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 April 2023): 15 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 64 — the 18th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 7–8, 14–15. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

8 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.