Friday, 11 November 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (6, 8, 18, 21, 23) with the draw of 28 November 2016 — its closest relative in 2,628 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 82% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 November 2022): 3, 6 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 79 — the 51th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. No two numbers side by side. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

23 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.