Friday, 28 October 2022

Its nearest twin

This exact draw has happened before, on 7 April 2014. Chance gave a match this close a 1.5% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (27 October 2022): 1, 15, 18 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 64 — the 18th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 17–18. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

10 had not appeared for 4 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.