Monday, 16 May 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (5, 6, 8, 20, 22) with the draw of 4 May 2010 — its closest relative in 2,525 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 81% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 May 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 86 — the 68th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 5–6. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

22 had not appeared for 7 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.