Monday, 20 September 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (1, 13, 17, 18, 22) with the draw of 1 December 2011 — its closest relative in 2,389 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 79% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 September 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 91 — the 78th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 17–18. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

22 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.