Thursday, 21 January 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (1, 6, 10, 15, 16) with the draw of 24 May 2016 — its closest relative in 2,251 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 77% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 January 2021): 1 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 73 — the 37th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

10 had not appeared for 6 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.