Tuesday, 12 May 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (9, 10, 13, 16, 19) with the draw of 17 November 2014 — its closest relative in 2,106 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 75% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 May 2020): 16, 19 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 82 — the 59th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 9–10, 15–16. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

15 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.