Tuesday, 18 September 2018

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (2, 12, 13, 14, 23) with the draw of 17 September 2018 — its closest relative in 1,762 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 68% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 September 2018): 2, 12, 13, 14, 23 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 69 — the 28th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 12–13, 13–14. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

5 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.