Tuesday, 15 August 2017

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (5, 6, 16, 23, 25) with the draw of 25 January 2016 — its closest relative in 1,535 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 63% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (14 August 2017): 5 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 83 — the 61th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 5–6. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

6 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.