Friday, 12 August 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (2, 8, 14, 16, 20) with the draw of 6 January 2012 — its closest relative in 1,325 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 58% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 August 2016): 8, 20 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 64 — the 18th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. No two numbers side by side. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

4 had not appeared for 6 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.