Thursday, 30 June 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (10, 13, 19, 23, 24) with the draw of 4 February 2016 — its closest relative in 1,300 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 57% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (28 June 2016): 13, 19 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 105 — the 95th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 23–24. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

10 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.