Tuesday, 17 May 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (2, 8, 11, 14) with the draw of 1 March 2016 — its closest relative in 1,275 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 May 2016): 8, 14 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 69 — the 28th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 13–14. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 7 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.