Thursday, 1 October 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (8, 11, 19, 25) with the draw of 26 June 2015 — its closest relative in 1,144 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (29 September 2015): 4 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 77 — the 46th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

8 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.