Tuesday, 16 July 2013

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (13, 16, 19, 24) with the draw of 24 June 2013 — its closest relative in 683 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (15 July 2013): 12, 16, 24 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 109 — the 97th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 12–13, 24–25. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.