Thursday, 19 July 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (8, 17, 21, 25) with the draw of 22 May 2012 — its closest relative in 476 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 July 2012): 9, 20 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 100 — the 91th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 8–9, 20–21. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

17 had not appeared for 6 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.