Monday, 14 May 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (6, 18, 19, 23) with the draw of 14 February 2012 — its closest relative in 438 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 May 2012): 6, 17 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 85 — the 66th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 17–18, 18–19. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

19 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.