Thursday, 18 January 2024

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (12, 21, 27, 30) with the draw of 9 September 2023 — its closest relative in 5,020 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 January 2024): nothing carried over. Chance says 66% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 149 — the 86th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. No two numbers side by side. 59% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

30 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.