Wednesday, 27 December 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (7, 8, 16, 32, 33) with the draw of 21 July 2015 — its closest relative in 4,998 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 26% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (26 December 2023): 32 carried over. Chance says 66% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 111 — the 36th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 7–8, 15–16, 32–33. 59% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

7 had not appeared for 7 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 13% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.