Wednesday, 20 September 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (5, 14, 30, 36) with the draw of 17 April 2022 — its closest relative in 4,900 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 September 2023): 5 carried over. Chance says 66% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 108 — the 32th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 14–15. 59% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

30 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 10% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.