Monday, 31 July 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (16, 20, 31, 32, 34) with the draw of 4 August 2017 — its closest relative in 4,849 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 26% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (30 July 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 66% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 156 — the 91th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 31–32. 59% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

16 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 18% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.