Tuesday, 5 October 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (12, 24, 25, 30) with the draw of 9 July 2020 — its closest relative in 4,185 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 October 2021): 20, 25 carried over. Chance says 66% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 146 — the 84th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 24–25. 59% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 11% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.