Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (5, 6, 12, 18, 24) with the draw of 16 September 2016 — its closest relative in 2,820 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 16% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (8 January 2018): 6 carried over. Chance says 66% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 104 — the 27th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 5–6. 59% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 30 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 10% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.