Monday, 20 November 2017

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (4, 15, 17, 27) with the draw of 17 September 2016 — its closest relative in 2,770 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 November 2017): 3, 4 carried over. Chance says 66% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 74 — the 3th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 3–4. 59% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

17 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.