Wednesday, 15 October 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (15, 20, 27, 31) with the draw of 26 December 2013 — its closest relative in 1,643 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (14 October 2014): 20, 21, 27 carried over. Chance says 66% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 151 — the 88th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 20–21. 59% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

31 had not appeared for 5 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 13% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.