Sunday, 19 August 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (12, 15, 25, 34) with the draw of 7 March 2011 — its closest relative in 856 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 88% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 August 2012): 12 carried over. Chance says 66% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 133 — the 68th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 11–12. 59% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

36 had not appeared for 4 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 16% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.