Sunday, 11 June 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (13, 14, 26, 31) with the draw of 24 May 2018 — its closest relative in 4,799 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 June 2023): 31 carried over. Chance says 61% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 104 — the 89th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 80. Side-by-side numbers: 13–14. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

20 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.