Friday, 10 February 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (13, 21, 23, 29) with the draw of 3 December 2015 — its closest relative in 4,678 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 97% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (9 February 2023): 9, 23 carried over. Chance says 61% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 95 — the 78th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 80. No two numbers side by side. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

29 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.