Monday, 16 May 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 9, 10, 12) with the draw of 3 December 2019 — its closest relative in 4,408 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 97% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (15 May 2022): 4 carried over. Chance says 61% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 43 — the 2th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 80. Side-by-side numbers: 8–9, 9–10. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

9 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.