Wednesday, 24 November 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 5, 11, 27) with the draw of 1 August 2012 — its closest relative in 4,235 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (23 November 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 61% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 57 — the 11th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 80. Side-by-side numbers: 4–5, 10–11. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

4 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.