Monday, 30 November 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (15, 16, 23, 25) with the draw of 10 November 2014 — its closest relative in 3,876 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 95% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (29 November 2020): 16 carried over. Chance says 61% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 83 — the 55th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 80. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.