Saturday, 18 January 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (10, 23, 25, 29) with the draw of 21 August 2015 — its closest relative in 3,559 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 94% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 January 2020): 10 carried over. Chance says 61% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 98 — the 82th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 80. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 23 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.