Friday, 14 July 2017

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (12, 19, 20, 21) with the draw of 31 January 2017 — its closest relative in 2,645 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 87% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 July 2017): nothing carried over. Chance says 61% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 94 — the 76th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 80. Side-by-side numbers: 19–20, 20–21, 21–22. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

19 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.