Saturday, 25 September 2010

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (7, 29, 30) with the draw of 16 September 2010 — its closest relative in 170 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 97% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (24 September 2010): nothing carried over. Chance says 61% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 102 — the 87th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 80. Side-by-side numbers: 29–30. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.