Saturday, 10 August 2024

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (9, 21, 22) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 27 November 2023 — its closest relative in 1,543 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 August 2024): 21 carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 5 repeated (17% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 107 — the 52th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 21–22. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

40 had not appeared for 29 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.