Saturday, 16 December 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (12, 15, 20, 23) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 21 April 2012 — its closest relative in 1,441 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 29% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 December 2023): 12 carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 2 repeated (17% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 83 — the 19th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 12–13. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

15 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.