Saturday, 30 September 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 9, 35, 38) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 19 April 2017 — its closest relative in 1,408 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 29% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (27 September 2023): 3 carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (17% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 113 — the 61th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. No two numbers side by side. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

9 had not appeared for 28 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.