Wednesday, 8 December 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (3, 21, 33) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 19 September 2020 — its closest relative in 1,217 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 December 2021): 3, 33 carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 5 repeated (17% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 77 — the 13th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. No two numbers side by side. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.