Wednesday, 17 June 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (7, 25, 40) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 16 August 2014 — its closest relative in 541 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 June 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (17% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 93 — the 31th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

10 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.