Wednesday, 17 October 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (5, 33, 40) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 26 February 2011 — its closest relative in 263 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 90% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 October 2012): nothing carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (17% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 117 — the 67th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. No two numbers side by side. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

5 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.