Saturday, 28 January 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (1, 16, 39) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 10 November 2010 — its closest relative in 189 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 81% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (25 January 2012): 1 carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (17% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 105 — the 49th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 24–25. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

16 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.