Sunday, 5 July 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (1, 5, 29) with the draw of 28 June 2020 — its closest relative in 2,729 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 July 2020): nothing carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 80 — the 35th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 88. Side-by-side numbers: 22–23. 49% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

23 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.