Friday, 5 July 2019

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (23, 24, 25, 31) with the draw of 10 August 2011 — its closest relative in 2,446 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 72% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 July 2019): 31 carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 107 — the 82th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 88. Side-by-side numbers: 23–24, 24–25. 49% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

4 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.