Saturday, 24 November 2018

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 4, 13, 14) with the draw of 8 August 2017 — its closest relative in 2,338 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 71% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (23 November 2018): 13 carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 40 — the 1th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 88. Side-by-side numbers: 3–4, 13–14. 49% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

4 had not appeared for 6 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.