Wednesday, 2 March 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 2 of 6 numbers (38, 47) with the draw of 22 January 2011 — its closest relative in 121 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (26 February 2011): 29 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 202 — the 84th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 165. Side-by-side numbers: 38–39. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

26 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 70% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.