Wednesday, 14 September 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (2, 3, 11, 23) with the draw of 17 February 2016 — its closest relative in 672 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 27% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 September 2016): 11 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 74 — the 22th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. Side-by-side numbers: 2–3. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

3 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.