Thursday, 1 October 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (9, 14, 25) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 14 September 2019 — its closest relative in 651 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (30 September 2020): 9 carried over. Chance says 53% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (3% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 104 — the 60th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 98. Side-by-side numbers: 24–25. 45% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.