Tuesday, 2 December 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (10, 26, 27, 32) with the draw of 15 October 2011 — its closest relative in 727 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 29% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (29 November 2014): 32 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 106 — the 76th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11, 26–27. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

11 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.