Saturday, 3 August 2013

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (3, 15, 16) with the draw of 10 November 2011 — its closest relative in 519 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (1 August 2013): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 75 — the 24th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

30 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.